Fuel Price War on Lagos-Ibadan Expressway as Petrol Drops to ₦805 — Will Dangote’s ₦774 Ex-Depot Cut Trigger Nationwide Reduction?

Petrol is now selling for as low as ₦805 per litre along the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway — and marketers are scrambling to keep customers. But here’s what most people are missing: despite Dangote Refinery cutting its ex-depot price to ₦774, many filling stations haven’t reduced pump prices. So who’s really benefiting from the latest fuel price adjustments?

A fresh wave of competition has erupted among fuel marketers in Lagos and Ogun States, pushing petrol prices lower along the busy Lagos-Ibadan corridor. In Mowe, pump prices have dropped to ₦805 per litre as retailers battle for customer loyalty.

But this isn’t just about local competition.

It’s about something bigger — a structural shift in Nigeria’s fuel supply chain.

Several filling stations along the expressway have adjusted their pump prices downward in recent days:

• SGR Filling Station (Mowe axis) – ₦805 per litre

• Other outlets in Ibafo and Lotto – ₦819 to ₦825 per litre

• Some Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) retail outlets – ₦837 to ₦840 per litre

The downward movement follows a ₦25 reduction in the petrol gantry (ex-depot) price by Dangote Petroleum Refinery, from ₦799 to ₦774 per litre.

Here’s the key question:

If marketers are now buying cheaper, why haven’t pump prices dropped proportionally across board?

Despite the reduction at depot level, some stations — including outlets affiliated with MRS Oil Nigeria Plc — have maintained pump prices around ₦839 per litre in certain locations.

This raises three possibilities:

• Inventory Lag: Stations may still be selling previously purchased stock at older prices.

• Operational Costs: Transportation, storage, and retail margins may be absorbing the difference.

• Profit Cushioning: Retailers may be maintaining margins longer than expected.

Interestingly, when ex-depot prices previously increased, pump prices were adjusted almost immediately.

Why the delay now?

Dangote Refinery argues its ₦774 ex-depot price strengthens the competitiveness of locally refined petrol, especially compared to imported fuel.

According to refinery estimates:

• Imported PMS landing price from Lome: ~₦793 per litre

• Dangote ex-depot price: ₦774 per litre

However, the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria reportedly estimates imported petrol landing costs at about ₦722 per litre — lower than Dangote’s ex-depot price.

This creates a critical policy and market question:

Is imported fuel currently cheaper than locally refined petrol?

If so, how sustainable is Nigeria’s local refining push in the short term?

Amid the price adjustments, Dangote Refinery announced it has reached its full nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day — a major operational milestone.

The refinery, working with licensor UOP, has completed optimization of its crude distillation unit and motor spirit production block. According to management, a 72-hour performance test is validating operational stability and global compliance standards.

Why does this matter?

Because full capacity could mean:

• More domestic supply

• Reduced import dependency

• Greater pricing stability

• Potential long-term downward pressure on pump prices

But only if distribution and market transparency improve.

Short term:

• Expect localized price competition in high-traffic areas like Lagos-Ogun corridors.

• Marketers in competitive zones may continue trimming prices.

Medium term:

• If Dangote maintains or further reduces ex-depot pricing, pump prices could gradually align lower.

• However, regional differences will persist depending on transport costs and competition intensity.

Long term:

• Full refinery capacity could reshape Nigeria’s fuel pricing model entirely.

The real story isn’t just ₦805 petrol.

It’s whether Nigeria is entering a sustained era of market-driven fuel pricing — or just witnessing temporary retail competition.

And that’s the conversation policymakers, marketers, and consumers should be having.