NEPC’s $10bn South-West Export Target Tests Nigeria’s Value-Addition Ambition

A $10 billion export ambition sounds impressive, but the more important question is what Nigeria will have to change to earn it. The South-West already occupies a powerful position in Nigeria’s non-oil export economy; the challenge now is whether that strength can be converted from commodity production and trading into deeper processing, manufacturing and higher-value exports.

That distinction matters because Nigeria's latest export numbers show genuine progress, but also reveal how much further the country still has to go. NEPC says formal non-oil exports reached a record $6.1 billion in 2025, yet much of the country's agricultural potential remains tied to commodities whose greatest value may be created after they leave the farm.

The Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) has projected that the South-West region could contribute between $9 billion and $10 billion in non-oil exports by 2035.

NEPC South-West Regional Coordinator Benedict Itegbe disclosed the projection at the 2026 Annual Agro-Allied Symposium and Exhibition organised by the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) in Lagos.

The two-day event was held on September 23 and 24 under the theme “The Future of Nigeria: Agricultural Industrialisation as the Foundation for Regional Development.” LCCI said the programme focused on agricultural value-chain transformation, agro-processing, investment, technology, food security and export development.

Itegbe linked the 2035 projection to increased agricultural production, value addition and export-oriented industrialisation.

The projection comes after Nigeria recorded approximately $6.1 billion in formally documented non-oil exports in 2025, representing an 11.5 per cent increase from about $5.46 billion in 2024. Export volume also increased by 10 per cent to 8.02 million metric tonnes.

The most significant part of the South-West target may not be the dollar figure itself. It is the economic model behind it.

Nigeria can increase exports without necessarily transforming the underlying structure of its economy. If more agricultural commodities simply leave the country in raw or minimally processed form, export earnings may rise while a significant share of the potential manufacturing, employment and industrial value remains elsewhere.

That is why the language around value addition is important.

NEPC's national figures show that Nigeria exported 281 non-oil products in 2025, covering agricultural commodities, processed and semi-processed goods, industrial inputs and solid minerals. The council has described the increase as evidence of gradual progress toward broader product representation and value addition.

But the next stage is harder.

Moving from farming to processing requires reliable electricity, transport, storage, finance, machinery, quality control, packaging, market access and consistent supply of raw materials. Exporters must also satisfy standards in foreign markets.

In other words, the $10 billion target is ultimately less about producing more crops and more about building an industrial system around those crops.

The projection is not emerging from an insignificant export base.

In October 2025, NEXIM Bank said the South-West accounted for about 60 per cent of Nigeria's non-oil export value, with Lagos serving as the region's commercial hub. The bank specifically identified industries ranging from agro-processing and solid minerals to pharmaceuticals, fashion, film, music and digital innovation.

That provides an important foundation for the NEPC ambition.

Lagos offers access to financial institutions, businesses, ports, logistics networks and international markets, while other South-West states possess significant agricultural production and industrial capacity.

The opportunity, therefore, is not simply to create more exporters. It is to connect farmers, processors, manufacturers, logistics operators and exporters into stronger regional value chains.

The institutional view is relatively straightforward: Nigeria's non-oil exports are growing, the South-West already contributes substantially to export activity, and stronger agricultural industrialisation can push that contribution much higher.

NEPC's national data provide evidence for part of that argument. Formal non-oil exports reached a record $6.1 billion in 2025, while volumes increased and Nigerian products reached 120 countries.

The more cautious interpretation is that a record export year does not automatically establish a sustainable industrial transformation.

NEPC itself has acknowledged that the formal export figures do not capture the whole picture because substantial trade continues informally across Nigeria's land borders.

That creates a measurement problem as well as an economic one. If large portions of cross-border trade remain outside formal records, policymakers have less complete information about what Nigerian producers are actually selling abroad and where the strongest opportunities or bottlenecks exist.

The two positions are not necessarily contradictory. Nigeria can be making measurable progress while still having substantial structural weaknesses.

Cocoa illustrates the argument particularly well.

The crop is already one of Nigeria's important non-oil export products, and cocoa was among the commodities contributing to the country's 2025 export performance.

But the economic question extends beyond how many tonnes of cocoa Nigeria produces.

There is a difference between exporting agricultural commodities and developing an industry capable of processing those commodities into higher-value products.

That is the logic behind the calls at the LCCI symposium for greater processing and manufacturing.

Lagos State Commissioner for Agriculture and Food Systems Abisola Olusanya, represented at the event by Permanent Secretary Emmanuel Audu, argued that agricultural development should extend beyond production to processing, manufacturing, logistics, technology, retail and exports.

Bank of Agriculture Managing Director/CEO Ayodeji Sotinrin, represented by the bank's South-West Zonal Manager Nurudeen Olusiji, similarly emphasised the importance of local processing.

The argument is straightforward: if Nigeria produces the raw material but another economy performs the processing and captures the manufacturing margin, the Nigerian economy does not capture the full value of its agricultural production.

If the South-West can expand higher-value exports, the effects could extend beyond export statistics.

More processing activity can create demand for agricultural inputs and services. Manufacturing can generate jobs and deepen supply chains. Export-oriented firms can create demand for logistics, packaging, warehousing, finance and professional services.

There is also a foreign-exchange dimension.

Nigeria's $6.1 billion formal non-oil export performance in 2025 represented an important increase, but the country's export base remains far smaller than the scale of its agricultural and industrial potential.

A larger and more diversified export sector could provide additional foreign-exchange earnings and reduce the economy's exposure to movements in crude-oil markets.

But these benefits are not automatic. Higher export numbers must increasingly reflect products with stronger domestic value chains rather than simply larger volumes of raw commodities.

The NEPC projection therefore raises a more useful question than whether $10 billion sounds ambitious.

What infrastructure and businesses will have to exist by 2035 for the South-West to consistently generate that level of non-oil export earnings?

The answer would involve much more than farmers.

It would require processors capable of operating at international standards, manufacturers able to compete on price and quality, reliable logistics, access to export finance, stronger trade infrastructure and policies that make it easier for businesses to move from informal or small-scale activity into formal international trade.

The region's existing position gives it a starting point. NEXIM Bank's estimate that the South-West already accounts for about 60 per cent of Nigeria's non-oil export value suggests that the region has considerable weight in the sector.

The question is whether that weight can be transformed into a deeper industrial advantage.

Ultimately, the significance of NEPC's $9–10 billion projection is not the headline number. It is the test it creates for Nigeria's agricultural-industrial strategy.

The country has already demonstrated that non-oil exports can grow: formal earnings reached $6.1 billion in 2025, an 11.5 per cent increase over the previous year.

The harder task is turning that momentum into an economy that exports more processed goods, creates more value at home and builds stronger connections between farms and factories.

For the South-West, 2035 will therefore be less a test of whether Nigeria can produce more commodities than whether it can capture more of their value before they reach the global market.