Nigeria’s Food Inflation Drops to 8.89% — Lowest in 14 Years as Headline Inflation Eases to 15.10%

This could change everything — and here’s why.

Nigeria’s food inflation has crashed into single digits for the first time in over a decade, defying analyst predictions and marking the sharpest turnaround since 2011. But while the numbers look impressive, many Nigerians are still asking one big question: why are prices in the market still painfully high?

Nigeria’s food inflation rate dropped sharply to 8.89% year-on-year in January 2026, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

That marks:

• The lowest food inflation rate in 128 months

• The first single-digit reading since August 2011 (8.66%)

• A dramatic fall from 29.63% in January 2025

Even more striking:

On a month-on-month basis, food inflation recorded –6.02%, meaning average food prices actually declined in January.

The NBS attributed the slowdown to falling prices of:

• Yam and cassava

• Eggs and beans

• Palm oil and groundnut oil

• Maize and guinea corn

• Beef and soya beans

But here’s the bigger question…

If inflation is falling this fast, why do many households still feel squeezed?

Headline inflation declined slightly to 15.10% in January 2026, down from 15.15% in December 2025.

This came as a surprise to analysts who had projected inflation could rise toward 19%.

Key highlights:

• Consumer Price Index fell from 131.2 to 127.4

• Month-on-month inflation: –2.88%

• Lowest headline rate since November 2020

Urban inflation dropped to 15.36%, while rural inflation fell to 14.44%.

Core inflation (excluding food and energy) also slowed to 17.72%.

On paper, this suggests broad-based easing across the economy.

But what’s really happening beneath the surface?

3 Key Things You Should Know

Inflation measures the rate of increase, not the price level.

Prices may stop rising rapidly — but they remain far higher than they were two years ago.

That’s why many Nigerians say the market reality doesn’t match official data.

Business leaders point to improved exchange rate stability (around ₦1,350/$) as a major factor helping slow price pressures.

Stable forex reduces import costs, fuel expenses, and supply chain stress.

Stakeholders in the Organised Private Sector say increased agricultural production — especially rice and cassava — contributed to improved supply.

However, small business leaders warn against “celebrating too early,” arguing that:

That tension between statistical improvement and lived reality may define Nigeria’s economic debate in 2026.

Inflation is not uniform across Nigeria.

Highest year-on-year headline inflation:

Benue – 22.48%

Kogi – 20.98%

FCT – 19.25%

Lowest:

Ebonyi – 8.72%

Katsina – 8.94%

Imo – 10.61%

Food inflation remains highest in Kogi, Benue, and Adamawa.

What happens next may surprise you.

If food production remains stable and exchange rates hold, inflation could trend downward further in Q1 and Q2 2026.

But if supply shocks return — especially during fasting seasons or planting cycles — pressures could re-emerge quickly.